- Patrick Henry
Three Charts That Will Infuriate Taxpayers
Whether you are Democrat, Republican, Libertarian, Green or Independent, every American Citizen should read this article. We have to decide whether or not we want the Federal Government to continue to expand and intrude evermore into our daily lives. I simply ask, "How did we allow ourselves to get here?"
Dick
Three Charts that Will Infuriate Taxpayers - Deroy Murdock - National Review Online
The Health of America
I participate in an online discussion group of about 9 other
guys. I have only met 5 of them in
person. We are made up of a couple of
fairly hard left Liberals, a couple of fairly hard right Conservatives and the
rest mostly center right. We are
friendly, non-disparaging and listen to one another. Here is an input of mine from February 2017:
Okay Gentlemen:
Have been slow to jump in because, frankly there was an
awful lot of discussion and I wasn’t sure where to expend my efforts. At the outset, I will say that I don’t care
for the demeanor of Donald Trump and never have. As a person, I don’t like him. In my wildest dreams, I never expected he
could become our president.
Nevertheless, given the terrible choices we had on Election Day, I voted
for him because despite his manner he offered policy and goals I think
necessary for our country, which significantly change the direction in which
the country is going. Without protection of the homeland, nothing else
matters. The debt must be addressed and
we need to encourage American enterprise and create JOBS. Time will tell if he can make things happen
or if he is just all bluster.
Following are general observations about the health of the
nation: facts that you probably all know but may have forgotten. I will
endeavor to remain unemotional in what follows and if I have an opinion, I will
note so. My thoughts, following, are
taken from what I believe to be unbiased studies and research; I have tried to
avoid opinion pieces from either side.
My idea is that “You be the judge”.
From some of the topics we have been discussing:
Media Bias: Per a 2014 study by Indiana
University-Bloomington, about 28 percent of journalists say they affiliate with
the Democratic Party, 7 percent the Republican Party and 14 percent an “other”
party.
In an analysis by the Center for Public Integrity, people
identified in federal campaign finance filings as journalists, reporters, news
editors or television news anchors provided more than $396,000 to the
presidential campaigns of Clinton and Trump.
The analysis determined that 96 percent of that money benefited Clinton:
Through August 2016, 430 of those in the field of journalism gave about
$382,000 to the Democratic nominee while 50 identifiable journalists gave about
$14,000 to Trump.
Defense versus Social
Spending: In 1959 US expenditures
for Defense (military spending and veteran’s benefits) were 54% of Federal
Government expenditures and Social Programs (income security, healthcare,
education, housing, and recreation) were 20% of federal expenditures. By 1972,
expenditures for Defense and Social Programs were equal at approximately 36%
for each. In 2015, the federal government
spent 63% of its finances on Social Programs and 19% on Defense.
Healthcare: Between 1960 and 2014, healthcare spending in
the United States increased:
1) From an average of $146/person per year to $9,532 (by 65
times).
2) From an inflation-adjusted average of $1,176/person per
year to $9,544 (by 8 times).
3) From 5.0% of the nation’s economy (gross domestic
product) to 17.5% (by 3.5 times).
Third-party payments are healthcare expenses that are not
directly paid by consumers but by other entities such as governments and
insurance companies. Between 1960 and 2014, the portion of U.S. healthcare
expenses paid:
1) Directly by consumers decreased from 48% to 11%.
2) By government increased from 24% to 49%.
3) By private insurance increased from 21% to 33%.
Under every combination of scenarios modeled, the United
States will face a shortage of physicians over the next decade, according to a
physician workforce report released in April 2016 by the Association of
American Medical Colleges. The projections show a shortage ranging between
61,700 and 94,700, with a significant shortage showing among many surgical
specialties. Opinion: This alone may
make universal healthcare impossible to achieve.
Social Security:
The Social Security Act of 1935 set the initial tax rate at 2% (employee and
employer combined) and specified increases that would bring this rate to 6% by
1949. After many changes over time,
today the rate stands at 12.4%, total of employer and employee combined.
The original 1935 law implementing Social Security requires
that when Social Security's sources of income exceed its expenses, the
resultant surpluses must be loaned to the general fund of the U.S.
Treasury. By law, the Treasury must pay this money back to the Social Security
program with interest (Recently at a rate of 3.8%). From 1985 through 2009, Social Security's
dedicated taxes exceeded its expenses. In 2010, the situation reversed, and
expenses exceeded dedicated taxes. This continues
through today and is projected to continue every year into the foreseeable
future.
Projections by the Social Security Trustees:
2014 to 2033: The
Trust fund declines in value every year.
The federal government pays back the money that Social Security has lent
it, with interest, and the Trust Fund is depleted.
2033 to 2088: The
Social Security program runs annual deficits that accumulate to $75 trillion,
which could be covered by (a) adding $10.6 trillion to the Trust Fund today, or
(b) increasing payroll taxes by 31% starting in 2033, rising to a 40% increase
by 2088, or (c) reducing benefits by 23% starting in 2033, rising to a 27%
reduction by 2088.
Why? Several reasons,
but here are two having a large impact:
1) A primary cause of the projected Social Security deficits
is that the number of workers paying taxes compared to the number of people
receiving benefits has fallen and is projected to fall further. In 1955 there were 8.5 working taxpayers for
each Social Security beneficiary. Today
that rate stands at 2.6 workers per beneficiary.
2) Increase in life expectancy without a comparable increase
in the retirement age: When Social Security began paying benefits in 1940, the
average 65-year-old male had a period life expectancy of 11.9 years. By 2013,
this figure had increased to 18 years, while the retirement age had increased
by one year. The average 65-year-old female had a period life expectancy of
13.4 years in 1940. By 2013, this figure had increased to 20.5 years, while the
retirement age had increased by one year. The full retirement age now stands at
67 for people born after 1959.
Medicare: The 2015 Medicare Trustees Report projects
the future finances of the Medicare program based upon high, low, and
intermediate-cost assumptions. Per the intermediate assumptions, the Medicare
program faces a $27.6 trillion actuarial deficit over the next 75 years (in
2015 dollars). The report states that the resources needed to cover this
deficit “would be in addition to the payroll taxes, benefit taxes, and premium
payments.”
Just as explained in the Social Security discussion, by 2030
the period life expectancy for 65-year-old Americans will rise to 19.5 years
for males and 21.7 years for females. This would amount to a 51% increase in
the time spent collecting Medicare benefits for males and a 33% increase for
females.
Current regulation in the Affordable Care Act incrementally
cuts Medicare prices “for hospital, skilled nursing facility, home health,
hospice, ambulatory surgical center, diagnostic laboratory, and many other
services” over the next 75 years to “less than half of their level under the prior
law.” The U.S. Centers for Medicare and
Medicaid Services projects that by 2085, Medicare payment rates for inpatient
hospital services will be roughly 33% of private health insurance payment
rates. The Medicare Trustees Report explains that these cuts will likely cause
“withdrawal of providers from the Medicare market” and “severe problems with
beneficiary access to care….” See my comment about doctor shortages in the
section above, Healthcare.
Regulation: Back in 1960, the Code of Federal Regulations
(CFR) contained 22,877 pages in 68 volumes. The pace picked up. The CFR stood
at 71,224 pages by year-end 1975, in 133 volumes. By year-end in 2015 it had risen to a hefty
175,268 pages.
The Competitive Enterprise Institute reported a $1.885
trillion hidden tax on American consumers and the U.S. economy in 2015 due to
federal regulations and intervention. In
2015, Congress enacted 114 laws during the calendar year, while 3,410 rules
were issued by agencies. Thus, 30 rules were issued for every law enacted last
year. Opinion: Essentially, Congress has
delegated lawmaking power to un-elected agency officials.
One of our group asked for some specificity in what
regulations should be changed. Here I will enter another opinion: Remove the ethanol mandates that force
biofuels into the US fuel supply.
Why? Back to some facts:
The total energy input to produce 1 Liter of ethanol is
7,333 kcal. At the same time, that 1 Liter of ethanol has an energy value of
only 5,130 kcal. Based on a net energy loss of 2,203 kcal ethanol produced, 43%
more fossil energy is expended than is produced as ethanol.
Some of the economic and energy contributions of the
by-products (if any) are negated by the widespread environmental pollution
problems associated with ethanol production. First, corn production causes more
soil erosion than any other U.S. crop.
In addition, corn production uses more herbicides and insecticides and
nitrogen fertilizer than any other crop produced in the U.S., and these chemicals
may invade groundwater and surface water, thereby causing more water pollution
than any other crop. Corn also uses more
water per acre than any other crop thus posing the threat of aquifer
depletion. Numerous scientific studies
have concluded that corn ethanol production does not provide a net energy
balance; that only about 25% of the energy in ethanol is considered a renewable
energy source, and is not an economical fuel; furthermore, its production and
use contribute to air, water, and soil pollution.
In 2000, over 90% of the U.S. corn crop went to feed people
and livestock, many in undeveloped countries, with less than 5% used to produce
ethanol. In 2013, however, 40% went to produce ethanol, 45% was used to feed
livestock, and only 15% was used for food and beverage. The grain required to fill a 25-gallon gas
tank with ethanol can feed one person for a year. In 2007, the global price of corn doubled because
of an explosion in ethanol production in the U.S. Because corn is the most
common animal feed and has many other uses in the food industry, the price of
milk, cheese, eggs, meat, corn-based sweeteners and cereals increased as well.
Climate Change: There is so much written in so much detail
about this subject and I have already gone long enough. First, my opinion: is that climate change is
occurring. What is not known with
certainty, is the degree to which human activity is causing it. Collection of data is difficult; models are
developed by humans with imperfect knowledge.
A couple of group members sparred briefly with opposing
theory that grants and prestige enter the development of the science. In 2009, an unknown individual(s) released
more than 1,000 emails (many dealing with proxy studies) from the University of
East Anglia’s Climatic Research Unit (CRU). The materials were authored by some
of the world’s leading climate scientists.
Collusion and uncertainty were such that the emails were referred to as
ClimateGate emails. Attendant comments included many suspicious accusations
such as, "planning to boycott scientific journals that require authors to
release all data and calculations used in their published papers.” And, "burying one of their own studies,
because it produced an outcome they did not want.” The chicanery went on and on.
Of the tens of
thousands of facts available in the climate change discussion, I found these
interesting:
1) As of August 2015, 31,487 scientists, including 3,805
with degrees in atmospheric, earth, or environmental science and 9,029 Ph.D.’s
in varying scientific fields, have signed a petition stating: "There is no
convincing scientific evidence that human release of carbon dioxide, methane,
or other greenhouse gases is causing or will, in the foreseeable future, cause
catastrophic heating of the Earth’s atmosphere and disruption of the Earth’s
climate. Moreover, there is substantial scientific evidence that increases in
atmospheric carbon dioxide produce many beneficial effects upon the natural
plant and animal environments of the Earth.”
2) "The natural
variability of Earth’s climate is such that a glacier formerly existed on
Hawaii, and glaciers once covered almost all of Canada, New England, and the
northern central United States.”
3) A 2008 paper in
the Journal of Geophysical Research found that the area covered by sea ice in
the Arctic was declining by about 4.0% per decade, while the area covered by
sea ice in the Antarctic was increasing by about 1.7% per decade.
Finally, some
“general health of the nation” facts:
Date Total Debt Debt/Taxpayer Debt to GDP
17 Feb 2017 $19,976,332,000,000 $166,766 105.63%
17 Feb 2008
$9,791,963,000,000
$90,919 71.4%
17 Feb 2000
$5,732,511,000,000 $55,573 61.06%
Largest Budget Items
Date
Social Security Medicare/caid Defense Interest
on Debt
17 Feb 2017 $922,918,950,323 $1,137,378,425,485 $583,939,598,653 $256,359,320,798
17 Feb 2008 $592,863,285,195 $638,480,598,577 $600,810,753,455 $243,122,985,908
17 Feb 2000 $394,271,335,141 $323,938,040,147 $303,489,934,597 $227,321,087,053
Official Actual Food Stamp
Date US Population US Workforce Unemployed Unemployed Recipients
17 Feb 2017 324,560,048 152,152,052 7,626,130 14,982,920 42,705,838
17 Feb 2008 303,457,573 145,835,695 8,106,072 13,412,780 28,910,709
17 Feb 2000 281,215,709 134,604,996 5,683,427 9,642,438 17,573,830
Lots of information; My Opinion: Not much of it is
encouraging.
Be well, All,
Dick
